- JBIAutomated Interpretable Discovery of Heterogeneous Treatment Effectiveness: A COVID-19 Case StudyLengerich, Benjamin J, Nunnally, Mark E, Aphinyanaphongs, Yin and 2 more authors
Testing multiple treatments for heterogeneous (varying) effectiveness with respect to many underlying risk factors requires many pairwise tests; we would like to instead automatically discover and visualize patient archetypes and predictors of treatment effectiveness using multitask machine learning. In this paper, we present a method to estimate these heterogeneous treatment effects with an interpretable hierarchical framework that uses additive models to visualize expected treatment benefits as a function of patient factors (identifying personalized treatment benefits) and concurrent treatments (identifying combinatorial treatment benefits). This method achieves state-of-the-art predictive power for COVID-19 in-hospital mortality and interpretable identification of heterogeneous treatment benefits. We first validate this method on the large public MIMIC-IV dataset of ICU patients to test recovery of heterogeneous treatment effects. Next we apply this method to a proprietary dataset of over 3000 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, and find evidence of heterogeneous treatment effectiveness predicted largely by indicators of inflammation and thrombosis risk: patients with few indicators of thrombosis risk benefit most from treatments against inflammation, while patients with few indicators of inflammation risk benefit most from treatments against thrombosis. This approach provides an automated methodology to discover heterogeneous and individualized effectiveness of treatments.
- arXivNOTMAD: Estimating Bayesian Networks with Sample-Specific Structures and ParametersLengerich, Ben, Ellington, Caleb, Aragam, Bryon and 2 more authors
Context-specific Bayesian networks (i.e. directed acyclic graphs, DAGs) identify context-dependent relationships between variables, but the non-convexity induced by the acyclicity requirement makes it difficult to share information between context-specific estimators (e.g. with graph generator functions). For this reason, existing methods for inferring context-specific Bayesian networks have favored breaking datasets into subsamples, limiting statistical power and resolution, and preventing the use of multidimensional and latent contexts. To overcome this challenge, we propose NOTEARS-optimized Mixtures of Archetypal DAGs (NOTMAD). NOTMAD models context-specific Bayesian networks as the output of a function which learns to mix archetypal networks according to sample context. The archetypal networks are estimated jointly with the context-specific networks and do not require any prior knowledge. We encode the acyclicity constraint as a smooth regularization loss which is back-propagated to the mixing function; in this way, NOTMAD shares information between context-specific acyclic graphs, enabling the estimation of Bayesian network structures and parameters at even single-sample resolution. We demonstrate the utility of NOTMAD and sample-specific network inference through analysis and experiments, including patient-specific gene expression networks which correspond to morphological variation in cancer.
- NeurIPSMulti-task Learning of Order-Consistent Causal GraphsChen, Xinshi, Sun, Haoran, Ellington, Caleb and 2 more authorsIn Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems
We consider the problem of discovering K related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a l1/l2-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning K linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.